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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (31483)	4/15/2003 10:44:13 AM
From: jim black	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Dolinar, down to business for a change rather than my usual rants: What is your take on the German company Merz? I cannot find it listed on this side of the pond but they may have a blockbuster in memantine, probably to be marketed here in the States through Forest Labs. The results of the drug were reviewed in an American Academy of Neurology annual meeting in Oahu, Hawaii about three weeks ago, previously reviewed in January's New England Journal of Medicine and it has everyone in my specialty very optimistic. I do not know if the biotech NTI, a co-sponsor is a play or not. Memantine has been proven the only treatment for moderately advanced Alzheimer's disease in combination with Aricept (which we get good results with ONLY if used very early in the disease). As most of you who pay any attention to my rants on biotechs and drug companies in general I am generally not sanguine about drug company prospects ( always priced too high and who is going to pay for the damned drugs since they always cost a fortune?) but memantine if used as a play in the right sized drug company could be a blockbuster play. My last comment about a blockbuster drug was Avodart (GlaxoWelcomm) but GLX is such a huge company that a billion+ drug like Avodart will probably not make a ripple. Avodart shrinks prostate tissue enough to threaten the future of urologists who rely on TUR's (prostate surgey for older men) AND inhibits hair loss by acting a subtype ot the dihydrotestosterone receptor. So a heads up on Forest Labs, NTI and possibly Merz in Deutchland were we here able to buy it. Disclaimer: I am investigating but do not now own any of these companies and I am one pessimistic old fart when it comes to drug companies in general for their generally outrageous pe's adn growth rates, hence their PEG's , all just FWIW. Memantine is impressive in trials and will probably be available in USA soon and I as a practioner will be using it hand over fist if it is affordable. Jim Black

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