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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market

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To: Jerry who wrote (1531)4/15/2003 1:26:12 PM
From: Stephen O   of 1643
 
Copper Rises to Near 3-Week High as Consumers Stockpile Metal
2003-04-15 12:32 (New York)

London, April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper gained to a near
three-week high as carmakers and electrical goods manufacturers
stockpiled the metal, expecting industrial output to pick up in
the second quarter. Aluminum rose to a 2 1/2-week high.
Copper consumers are taking advantage of the metal's low
price, buying supplies to cater for a rise in demand in
construction and building work in the second quarter. The war
in Iraq and poor weather conditions caused construction to slow
in the first quarter. Things may pick up in the second,
analysts said. Copper yesterday fell below $1,600 a metric ton.
``There is definitely an element of bargain hunting,''
said Robin Bhar, an analyst at Standard Bank in London.
``$1,600 is a price considered cheap by many consumers. Forward
prices are quite attractive when you think some people are
forecasting prices above $1,800 by the end of the year.''
Copper for delivery in three months added $24, or 1.5
percent, to $1,627 a metric ton at 5:00 p.m., the close of
London Metal Exchange ring trading, as open outcry trading is
known. It's the highest closing price since March 26. LME-
monitored copper inventories dropped for a 28th day to 791,975
metric tons.
Aluminum for three-month delivery rose $11.5, or 0.9
percent, to $1,349 a metric ton, its highest closing price
since March 28. Aluminum stockpiles fell for a 20th day, to
1.27 million tons.
U.S. retail sales rebounded in March as Americans took
advantage of promotions to buy autos and returned to stores
after February snowstorms. Consumer confidence rose in April as
U.S. forces entered Baghdad.
Growth in the world's biggest economy may accelerate this
year ``toward a healthy and sustainable pace of 3 to 4 percent
by year's end,'' Anthony Santomero, president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said yesterday.

French Production

French industrial production rose for a second month in
February, increasing 0.6 percent from January, the government
said. Economists had predicted a drop of 0.4 percent.
Construction rose 2.6 percent in February, following a 3.2
percent drop the previous month, it said.
Metals prices slumped last month amid concern about the
U.S. economy's sluggish first-quarter performance. Copper shed
7.0 percent in March and aluminum fell 5.2 percent.
Federal Reserve figures this afternoon showed U.S.
industrial output declined in March for the second straight
month as concerns demand would falter with the onset of war led
factories to trim inventories.
Production at factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.5
percent last month after falling a revised 0.1 percent in
February, the Federal Reserve reported.

New York Manufacturing

Figures released today about the New York area showed
manufacturing contracted this month by the most since October
2001 as orders plunged amid concern that progress in the Iraq
war wouldn't lead to a rebound in sales.
A factory index compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York dropped to minus 20.4 in April, the lowest since the
aftermath of terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, from
minus 2.8 in March.
It was the second straight reading below zero, the longest
stretch of negative readings since 2001. Negative numbers
signal that a majority of factories reported a deterioration in
business.
``Economic data releases continue to paint a mixed picture
but there seems to be a consensus view that the global economy
will recover in the second half,'' Frederick Demler, a metals
analyst at Man financial Inc. in New York said in an e-mailed
note.

--Claire Shoesmith in the London newsroom at (44-20-7673-2659)
or cshoesmith@bloomberg.net. Editor: G. Reynolds.
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