Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject	4/15/2003 3:01:54 PM
From: energyplay	of 74559

SARS update Paul Kedrosky 4/15/03 01:53 PM ET A busy 24 hours on the SARS front: Nine new deaths in Hong Kong, where more than 20 restaurants have gone out of business in the past month 500 newly quarantined in Toronto (all members of a religious group) Calls from Canadian doctors to cease permitting all non-emergency visitors from Hong Kong and China It seems increasingly clear that Cathay Pacific will shut down, at least temporarily WHO estimates of economic damage are currently running at $30-billion The IMF has GDP estimates rapidly coming down in 100 basis point jumps in all affected regions, including Singapore, Hong Kong, and China Stephen Roach is calling this the nail in the coffin causing another global economic recession Latest SARS cases/deaths graph is here After more than a month covering this story, I have been somewhat more sanguine about the SARS outbreak in recent days -- covering my airline shorts, for example -- as global health authorities began to take things seriously and the media got frothy. But skepticism is rising, and some of it is knee-jerk and unwarranted. Many persist in pointing out that the flu kills 20,000 Americans per year, while SARS has "only" killed 160. While that is true, it also somewhat specious. Influenza is older and has deep infectious roots in our societies; SARS is new and cases are doubling every 15 days. Assuming that the outbreak is not arrested -- which is unlikely, but possible -- SARS would kill as many many people as influenza does worldwide by the end of the year, even if its doubling period slows to 36 days. Food for thought.

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