Hello Dr. Soni, You didn't mention that the Morningstar story (stating Valence was suspending manufacturing attempts and returning to R&D) that triggered a wave of panic selling was posted by R Ander on AOL.
Regarding Dell Computer, I bought at 24 in Jan '96 and took an $8/sh profit at 32 on 3/29/96 to put my money in something "hotter"(not Valence). Unfortunately I never got back in, but Dell has since split and gone to about 155. Adjusting for the split, I would have gone from 12 to 155 or almost 13 times my money.
If there had been a SI thread at the time some computations projecting 13x your investment in 18 months, or even 10x, I am sure any such suggestions would have been considered overly optimistic!
Needless to say, I have done my homework this time and will not make the same mistake with Valence! I remember coming up with about $1.10/sh annual earnings per production line for 2-shifts per day, including some "real world" factors I posted and encouraged others to work the numbers for themselves.
No one else has posted his results, other than Mooter775, who has told me that he has been conservatively using $1/sh per production line for quite some time with his own information.
Incidentally, I am becoming more loaded with engineering work, will be traveling and will be posting with less frequency. That should also keep me from inadvertently posting something the company doesn't want public or that could threaten ongoing negotitions, which I apologize for.
If you don't hear from me for a while, enjoy the vacation, but don't infer that I sold out and moved on- you know me too well for that. You can also depend on me to say hello when the stock is $25!
Best Regards, FMK |
