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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (31575)4/16/2003 2:02:49 AM
From: elmatador   of 74559
 
Jay, as per your request on significant moves in Argentina:

Murphy is gaining ground in Argentina. If elected in Argentina, the economy will pick up. Here is why:

He left UCR, created his ow political party and launch himself as candidate for president. Started in the polls with 3% intention of votes while the others main candidates had all around 15%. While they are kept with 15%, Murphy is now up to 13%. Threatening to go from fifth, fourth, third or even second.

His image not compromised with past political mistakes is devouring the potential voters from the center-right who would vote for Menen.

He would bring a lot of confidence from the international financial community and probably would do a Lula.

In a poll, three in four Argentineans would prefer Brazil's Lula as their president.

Lula started as a spendthrift threat to default on Brazil's debt. Send Brazil's risk to 2500 points. R$ down to 4/USD.

In the last four months he re-assured markets and today:

Risk is below 900 points. (Central Bank waiting risk to go further down to go out in the markets)

R$ up to 3.08/USD. (Goldman Sachs say it undervalued by 25%. Exporters area already worried USD go down vs. R$.

Keep an eye on Argentina.

Note, please, that Argentina needs to go up as much and as fast as it could to avoid negotiating NAFTA under duress and pressure from the US AND Brazil needs a strong partner to negotiate in block with the US.

Lula may be giving some hints down there and diplomats are traveling a lot to put the other LATAM countries in line with the bigger economies.

So lots at stake down there.
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