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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Earlie who wrote (235892)	4/16/2003 11:06:35 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) of 436258

From contraryinvestor.com Takin' A Break From All Your Worries Sure Would Help A Lot...Although a good number of tech related earnings will be simply abysmal this quarter, a number of component suppliers are destined to have a better time of it than not. Today was just an example. In one of his latest soliloquies, Fred Hickey (High Tech Strategist) noted that tech component ordering in advance of the Iraqi hostilities was fairly strong. Given that most tech manufacturers work on strict JIT (just in time) inventory systems these days, no one could afford any possible supply disruptions. Add in what has been happening in Asia now for a good month or so with SARS and the need to build inventory as opposed to relying on strict and tight JIT fulfillment has clearly been above average over the last few months at least. Fred predicted at the time that many of the component crowd (semi chips, flash, etc.) folks would make their numbers for 1Q, but that there was to come a looming 2Q disaster as these inventories would need to be worked off. The upshot being that final demand for boxes, cell phones, etc. has been anemic, therefore the inventory build was borrowing from tomorrow's component purchases. Well, the first part of Fred's prediction is coming true right on the money. Folks like Intel, Texas Instruments and Motorola made 1Q estimates look easy. And despite some veiled warnings from a number of tech companies about tough times in tech land broadly, market participants were simply in the mood to party after hours. Just takin' a break from all that's out there over which to worry. After all, we probably have a good month to month and a half before some of the potentially somber news regarding 2Q inventory workdowns makes its way into mid-quarter updates and follow-on headlines.

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