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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu
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To: fut_trade who wrote (148)4/17/2003 1:30:37 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 4232
 
fut_trade,

In broad terms an epidemic is exponential until the growth levels off because some people are naturally resistant or because enough people have had the disease and become resistant. But in the very early stages it can be quite different, as you could get a series of peaks as each infected cohort infects another group. That's likely what you are seeing here, with the caveat that the most recent data in this graph is incomplete, as some people who already have the disease are not included because they have not yet been diagnosed:

who.int

This is by date of report:

who.int

Here's a site that has an exponential model:

squeak.org

Note the graph on the above site has a log scale, so exponential growth would be represented by a straight line. His (scary) predictions shouldn't be given too much weight right now, because we still are in the very early stages, and there is at least some chance this epidemic will be controlled.

This site also shows a frightening diagram of a single "super-spreader:"

squeak.org

Peter
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