Realistically, a vaccine for a mutant common cold is unlikely, however, perhaps vaccines for the worst strain(s) would have to do.
If transmission rate is identical to the common cold and the death rate is only 4%, then unless this wonder-vaccine shows up soon, it is only a matter of time that we all get it. 4%*5B = still a lot of dead people. However, if it is 25% as reported by someone in Beijing then 25%*5B is obviously a bigger problem.
time.com
Posted Monday, April 14, 2003; 22:50 HKT
This is the hospital ward China's Ministry of Health doesn't want you to see. There are more than 100 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) patients crammed into tiny rooms in the infectious diseases section of Beijing's You'an Hospital. "Every single one of us in this building is a SARS patient," says a nurse surnamed Zhang who worked at the People's Liberation Army Hospital (p.l.a.) No. 301 until 11 days ago, when she was diagnosed with the disease and admitted here. "There are at least 100 SARS patients here, if not several hundred. The conditions here are really bad. We're not allowed out of this room. We piss in this room, crap in this room and eat in the room. As far as I know, at least half of the patients here are doctors and nurses from other hospitals." As a Time reporter continued through the ward, another nurse who wouldn't give her name stopped him and explained, "Look, I'm not pushing you away. I do this for your own good. It's too dangerous here. It's really a terrible disease, even we who work here don't know when we'll get it. No place is safe in this hospital. All of these wards are full of SARS patients, there are over 100 at least. Don't believe the government—they never tell you the truth. They say it's a deadly disease with 4% mortality? Are you kidding me? The death rate is at least 25%. In this hospital alone, there are over 10 patients dead already."
Mind you, there will still be a lot of people alive after that in either scenario, though I assume there's some playable long positions in funeral supply chain industry.
If SARS breaks 1000 dead barrier, I'm going camping for 6 months in Newfoundland. If SARS doesn't get you, West Nile will. |
