EIA: "Short-Term Energy Outlook – April 2003"
eia.doe.gov
"Oil Price Impacts on the U.S. Economy", 1/20/2000:
eia.doe.gov
"Rules-of-Thumb for Oil Supply Disruptions"
eia.doe.gov
Energy Data:
eia.doe.gov
OPEC:
eia.doe.gov
Iraq:
eia.doe.gov
Iraq holds more than 112 billion barrels of oil - the world's second largest proven reserves. Iraq also contains 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and is a focal point for regional and international security issues.
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Added links + rearranged some.
>>> Rules-of-Thumb for Oil Supply Disruptions
While each oil supply disruption is unique in its effect on world oil markets, the Energy Information Administration has developed some simple rules-of-thumb to estimate price and U.S. macroeconomic impacts for oil supply disruptions.
World Oil Prices
For every one million barrels per day of oil supply disrupted and not made up by other supplies (the net disruption size), world oil prices could increase by $3-$5 per barrel.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Based on a sustained increase in the price of oil, each 10 percent increase in the price of oil could lower the real U.S. GDP growth rate by between 0.05 and 0.1 percentage points relative to its baseline level.
...First-year impacts are likely to be closer to the first estimate, while the impacts in the second year are likely to be near the larger estimate.
For example, if the U.S. GDP were projected to grow by 3.0 percent per year, a 50 percent increase in the price of oil could reduce the real GDP growth rate by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, or to 2.5-2.75 percent per year in this example.
These estimates represent price pressure on the economy, but the actual pass through will be determined by a number of other factors, such as the financial and operating position of firms and industries comprising the economy.
If the price of oil were $30 per barrel, the price and GDP rules-of-thumb could be combined in the following way to estimate the impacts of a disruption.
...For every 1 million barrels per day of oil disrupted, the price rule-of-thumb suggests that oil prices could increase by $3-$5 per barrel, or by 10%-17%.
... The GDP rule-of-thumb suggests that if these price increases were sustained, the U.S. GDP growth rate could be reduced by 0.05-0.0.08 percentage points (likely first year impacts), with the U.S. GDP growth rate reduction ranging as high as 0.10-0.17 percentage points (likely second year impacts).
Quarterly world oil price, eia.doe.gov , and U.S. GDP growth rate estimates, eia.doe.gov , are updated monthly in EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, eia.doe.gov .
Estimating the Net Oil Supply Disruption Size
As the previous paragraphs illustrated, the effects of an oil supply disruption are directly related to the size of the disruption. But how do you determine how large the oil supply disruption is?
First, estimate how much oil was being produced in the disrupted countries that is no longer available. EIA defines this as the Gross Disruption Size. However, to better estimate price and economic impacts, an adjustment to the Gross Disruption Size is necessary. To better estimate the impacts of an oil supply disruption, subtract from the Gross Disruption size how much more oil unaffected countries are likely to produce to help offset the loss of oil to the market. As the initial supply disruption occurs, prices are likely to increase immediately. However, this higher price increases the incentive for other producing countries, where possible, to increase their oil production. (Please see our latest estimate of excess oil production capacity). Once you have subtracted an assumed amount of excess production that will be utilized from the gross Disruption Size, your result is what EIA labels the Net Disruption Size. Using the Net Disruption Size in the rule-of-thumbs listed above should better estimate the impacts of the disruption. Other factors, such as the availability of oil inventories and the use of strategic oil inventories such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, can also affect the impacts of an oil supply disruption.<<< |
