the first depression is with corporate earnings
bear in mind that Naz100 has no PE, since it has no earnings
that is an earnings depression in spades
with proper accounting, the S&P for 2002 was 60% lower in earnings than reported, after figuring in options and pensions, which are real enough, I would say
since S&P earnings have thus come down about 75%, I would call them depressed by any loose criterion
the next for depression will be US households
they are shaken so far, soon to be stirred by more rampant unemployment
mfg capacity utilization is below all recession levels since WW2
it is around 74.8% last I heard
I would call that rate flirting with depression
when my finances turned sour in 2000 from the tech crash,
I can assure you that the depression was very much psychological
it mimicked perfectly my finances
I suspect the same will be true with our citizenry
anyone not owning a home, coming from middle class or lower middle class, is likely near technical bankruptcy
anyone owning a home for only a couple years and being young is likely suffering from the delusion of not being technically bankrupt, since they must only wait a couple years to watch their 3% downpayment home purchase turn into negative equity
I know of several young middle class couples in lesser homes
they are struggling, with some minor equity in their homes
the ones with children are especially strapped
they live paycheck to paycheck, in fear
they are very close to bankrupt
their expenses are rising every year
you seem to want to sugarcoat the financial straits for Americans
we have averted a depression in 2001-2002 by allowing a colossal amount of unbacked fiat dollars to be spewed into our economy, worsening debt levels to a very dangerous level
the MZM has expanded in the last 28 months by 35% or so
take out the added debt to sustain the economy built about our Temples of Overconsumption (shopping malls), and you very well might be seeing unemployment well above its current 9-10% in the USA
I say 9-10% since I count people not working as unemployed
unlike the USGovt
their 5.8% rate is pct of population receiving unemployment insurance
I was quoting Rostenko
perhaps ask him for supporting data
I dont have it
/ jim |
