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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II

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To: velociraptor_ who started this subject	4/17/2003 5:17:52 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (2) of 3432

money flow looking kind of scary. raptorgroupresearch.com Despite the last 2 days, it's negative and dropping fast. S&P money flow is ready to turn negative and DOW is flat. Nasdaq Comp is negative, too. In the chart above, ADX has been falling since the July low which suggests that everything since then is corrective. That means zero trend. In any impulse type move of 5 waves, the ADX will always begin moving up right from the start of wave 1. ALWAYS. The fact that it has not risen in the QQQ chart nor in any index chart off any low since then means there is no wave 1 off the low and thus no bull move. In fact, the biggest rise off the low for the ADX on the daily chart for the indices was on the down move off the January high. ADX is an excellent tool to correlate with Elliott wave structure and an excellent tool for confirmation of waves. The falling volume since the July low is only added confirmation. The rising MACD since then suggests the indices (or QQQ) are in a rising trend, yet have gone nowhere in the last 9 months and when you throw in the ADX and falling volume you have absolute confirmation that this is a large corrective pattern developing since July 2002. When that rising MACD line breaks, it will likely signal the next down leg of the bear is in process and the October lows will be taken out. You can count on it. Until we see a valid 5 wave move off a major low with the daily ADX rising in conjunction, there is no bullish alternative.

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