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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (53839)4/17/2003 7:23:11 PM
From: Bridge Player  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
<< Anyway, back to the paradox. If one buys QCOM, one is over-valuing the company because QUALCOMM doesn't think they can meet the buyer's expectations, or they would be doing the buying. If one sells QCOM, and QUALCOMM management is on the other end of the trade, one is undervaluing the company. >>

Maurice, the problem with your noisy analysis is this: with millions of shares being traded daily, the chances are extremely high that you are not trading stock with Qualcomm management. Rather, if the trade is for a few hundreds of shares, with another retail investor. If for a few thousands or tens of thousands, with a fund manager.

Now, the operative question becomes this: are you more or less knowledgeable about the true value of the shares you are trading than the person on the other side of your trade? Or perhaps to phrase it differently, about the stock price trend within the time frame of your interest and focus?

The answer to that question seems to me to be more important than whether or not Qualcomm management or insiders believe the current price represents over or under valuation.
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