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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (215)4/17/2003 9:23:25 PM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) of 3432
 
Justa, your argument assumes the VXN bottoms at the NDX high, which is not always the case. Last fall the NDX rose another 36 points after the VXN had bottomed.

I agree, we're extended on the VXN. However, I think the topping process may need to be resolved at a much higher level.

Obviously this is a distributive top, and there is not much real buying (the gaps are evidence of that). However, to assume because the VXN is at extreme levels a top must be in place is a bit dangerous.

Going long at this point is also quite dangerous, but it may be something worthwhile if there are tight stops and the long is a break of 1430 COMP. I like COMP 1486 as a sweet spot if we are going higher. Below that we have too many divergences between the NDX and COMP.
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