To answer your question, I'd guess that you need to look at the JT cut. I popped in yesterday to comment on margins, as consistency with my previous posts was of concern.
The Peters (Suzman and Church) are asking logical questions on this thread. I hadn't been following the thread closely since I sold, but, going back, I see that those questions are counter-balancing some fairly wild projections. If I were still in this issue, I'd be trying to massage Peter Church's numbers, assess the potential for growth of the total U.S. PI market, assess the potential for further nelf penetration of the U.S. PI market, add in figures for Europe and for royalties on saq from Roche, and assess my investment.
Agouron's technology, now supplemented with that of Alanex, is very desireable. The pipe is too, although several contributors to this thread are making it more than it is. A big bang could still come from a Chiron-like deal with either JT or Roche. I hope, for all those that are still in the issue, that you'll get it.
Johnson et al. have done a sensational job. AGPH was a $9 stock in 12/94. It is a true "10-bagger".
Biopicker has suggested looking at PCYC. It's an interesting company, and I second his enthusiasm. However, everyone needs to keep an eye on "baskets" for biotech. It's great to pick a 10-bagger, but you won't win with most early picks. Third-tier is a great place for venture-like returns. With a single pick, you run the risk of huge losses. With a basket, you won't get your venture returns unless you stay lithe, have a very good nose for the science, and throw in a good dose of luck.
Good luck! Rick |
