Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (31771)	4/18/2003 1:21:11 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Jay, Re: This SARS thing, even, could end up being a long-term economic boost, unlike war. Some say war is good for the economy. I can easily make a case that disease is better still for the same purpose. I'm scratching my head trying to figure out the silver lining. Obviously certain sectors such as the medical professionals and suppliers get a boost from disease. But I can't quite see how the transfer of a society's wealth to one sector helps the economy overall. Perhaps you could provide an example or your theory of how Sars could provide a long term boost? In the case of Black Plague in Europe we find that labor was a winner: econ.bu.edu <COPY> • The Black Death killed one third of Europe’s population in 1348-1351 • England’s population fell from 3.7 mil in 1348 to 2.1 mil in 1430 owing to wars and reoccurrence of the Plague • Real wages in England rose 25% following the Plague... <END COPY> However, GDP went through the floor, so, on balance, I'm not sure about the 'silver lining' point of view. Another 'silver lining' scenario here: time.com

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