My conclusion uses post facto data? Well, not sure how you drew that conclusion.
Re: "you cannot spot a price turn using $vxn levels, only with $vxn turns"
One can anticipate turns in price IMO by noting that the divergence between price and vxn is an anomaly at extremes and should revert to a normal relationship or even a cycle in the opposite direction in the dynamics of the market. I do this with my own method and it has marked short term turns with very good success.
Such is the measure, for example, of bollinger bands that have historically shown that a move in this measure at least beyond two standard deviations is an anomaly and will soon correct if not over correct as it has time after time in both bull and bear markets. As for those who argue that it is different this time and that the anomaly will continue to grow as we slide down the lower bollinger band, well, anything is possible but this is not probable, especially when viewing the RSI in conjuction with the bollinger bands that again support that a turn is near and that we will return to an increase in volatility (vxn) or lower prices after a period low volatility. Such has always been the nature of the market and my bet is that things have not changed.
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