Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 291.39

+2.8%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9500)	4/18/2003 12:09:39 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95480

Cary, it sounds like you have been converted back into a full fledged bull by the tone of these conference calls. Maybe you won't be disappointed this time around. But I would like to remind you that I am not depending on TA alone where it concerns the market. Semiconductor companies as whole have been reporting very upbeat earnings. But sentiment is dangerously bullish. You know I use TA but this is not just technical analysis alone. Instead it is simple sound reasoning. When too many people expect the market to do one thing ultimately it will do exactly the opposite. In my opinion we are still working off the excesses of the last big bubble of the great bull market that ended in 2000. Last year at this time AMAT was very positive as were many of the companies we all follow. We all know how that has turned out. In my opinion the bubble still needs to deflate further. Until we get too many bears we are more than likely to be disappointed on these rallies that continue to excite when we get better than expected earnings. Remember that the better than expected earnings are coming largely from reduced expectations. And there are a lot of fundamental valuation problems with the market trading at these levels that cannot be supported without a rapid business led economic recovery. More on the inverse relationship of the VIX and SOX with charts shown here: investorshub.com JMHO, RtS

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