i base it on the fact that $vix is still high relative to pre-bubble levels. reverting to the mean doesn't mean the mean doesn't move, and imo the 200dma is the wrong mean to be comparing against.
here's the last calendar year...
story.news.yahoo.com
here's the same chart from 1996...
stockcharts.com[w,a]declynay[d19950418,19960418][pb200][iUe1,200,1]&pref=G
here's the same chart, this time from 1997, which is roughly the same period pre-bubble as we are post-bubble...
stockcharts.com[w,a]declynay[d19960418,19970418][pb200!b600][iUe1,200,1]&pref=G
the 200dma has an enormous amount of air still needing to be bled out of it. the 200dma will move down, substantially, of that i have no doubt. |
