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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (262)	4/18/2003 3:20:20 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) of 3432

LOL, i don't do the slippery slope of "close enough". if "close enough" was ok then, you're going to have explain why it hasn't been ok all the other times. but if your argument is "well, it turned, and that was a good indicator", you're back to what i said several messages ago. -g- except we haven't actually turned yet. -bg- the biggest problem is imo you are applying bull-perspective to a bear market. john posted an excellent article on $vix explaining why it was inherently biased in the direction of the market. in addition, we know long bears drain volatility. since $vix is in a long-term downtrend we should expect excursions at least as far UNDER 30 as we had OVER 70 during the $vix bull market. eyeballing i see one in late '97 at ~85. therefore it would not surprise me at all to see RSI(14) go to 15 at some point.

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