SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (265)4/18/2003 4:01:37 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 3432
 
WLD: Re: "the biggest problem is imo you are applying bull-perspective to a bear market. john posted an excellent article on $vix explaining why it was inherently biased in the direction of the market. in addition, we know long bears drain volatility. since $vix is in a long-term downtrend we should expect excursions at least as far UNDER 30 as we had OVER 70 during the $vix bull market.

eyeballing i see one in late '97 at ~85. therefore it would not surprise me at all to see RSI(14) go to 15 at some point."

I am not applying bull market measures to a bear market IMO.

You can wrestle with the long term theories of where the vix may or may not go given your discussions of the "unknown" (VBG) of what may be or might be three years out. I never even entertained that notion. It wasn't part of my original post. It has nothing to do whatsover with what I have been saying as did your mention of the 200 dma. Anyway, I will deal in the here and now based upon the historical past. Charts speak for themselves. Just trying to share my view.

Re: " i don't do the slippery slope of "close enough". if "close enough" was ok then, you're going to have explain why it hasn't been ok all the other times"

Yep, I am on real a slippery slope here <g>. And thanks for the work assignemnet. But you can find all the times where the analysis has not worked in your mind all by yourself. The analysis works for me and I hope it has helped others.

Good luck.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News