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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 291.39+2.8%Nov 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (9518)4/18/2003 11:35:56 PM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 95479
 
RE: "This mixed bag proves that the technology recovery is random and probably depends on having the right product and the right cost cutting strategies. It is not a broad-brush move and specifically related to companies with niche products."

This illustrates my point vis a vis ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM. It isn't random for them. It isn't about the right product. It isn't about cost cutting. It isn't about niche products. It IS broadbrush. The "broadbrush" is advanced technology products. These companies have a very broad customer base across many industries and geographic areas. They are doing well because they are in customer's products that didn't exist in 2000 or had much less capability in 2000. They enable their customers products with their leading edge capability products. The recovery will proceed in earnest when there is a critical mass of technology products that didn't exist in 2000. I believe that the above 4 will be in the early stages of such a recovery and will participate and benefit at a rate greater than the recovey. If the signs are correct, the prices of these companies have a huge potential upside to potential downside ratio. Barring a complete economic disaster, the downside for these are diminishing and previous lows are highly unlikely to repeat.

Consider: In 2000, an FPGA with 1M gates cost about $1000. XLNX announced a 90 nanometer FPGA with 1M gates for about $30. It will ship later this year.
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