02 tax loss season;Mother of all buying opportunites? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 02 tax loss season;Mother of all buying opportunites?

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To: russwinter who wrote (172)	4/19/2003 1:34:37 AM
From: CapitalistHogg™	Read Replies (3) of 212

<Bad news for the equity market> I calculated the implied volatility of June QQQ puts at 38% on Thursday (noonish), a little high but I purchased some contracts anyways. A better strategy might have been to write calls unfortunately that is not an option for me. I based my decision on three main factors that I saw going on in the market. 1. When our forces cakewalked into the center of Baghdad I expected some sort of positive response in the market--but there was none. The only war rally we got was right before the BOB (as you predicted russ). 2. The VIX and VXN have both hit very low levels, and the velocity with which they have approached is also very steep. Headley is right on in his assessment about the VIX. I think Adam Hamilton also does a good job and I like his analysis on absolute VIX and 200dma. Check it out. zealllc.com 3. The price of gold. Seems to have bottomed around 320. If we were about to enter the next bull market I would expect this would crash through 300. Surprisingly the dollar has stayed stronger than I expected. With Alan printing money as fast as he can plus 40 year low interest rates, eventually foreign investment is going to leave fiat money for something that will hold value. Then look out. I have large positions in WHT DROOY AES CHK INVN and DO plus I'm short the QQQ's and have Out of the Money June QQQ puts. Took profits in SIRI, VRSN, LAVA and HRLY. If the Mr. Market goes up anymore next week I will literally borrow money to buy some more puts in something. Got any good shorts russ? I shouldn't get too cocky but last time I had a feeling like this I made most of my money for the year in a fairly short time.

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