SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 334.08-1.1%Oct 30 4:00 PM EDT
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: sun-tzu who wrote (2417)4/19/2003 1:21:24 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Sun: Will have to see the nature of the up you propose.

But I see next week as down overall and, perhaps, strongly so based on what I am seeing. I am of the camp that the strength in holding this thing up has been due growing optimisim measured by various sentiment gauges the past few weeks. But, ominously, the decline in bearishness has not resulted in higher prices so far.

Vxn and Vix are just two examples. Right now the divergence between NDX price and the Vxn by my measure is close to the polar opposite of what it was in early October. I would not want to fade that indicator.

I subscribe to a sentiment service that has three gauges of trader sentiment that have been helpful. Often times they offset one another. And sometimes two out of three are on the same side which lends to different scenarios for the coming week. This week all three are bearish. I would not want to fade that here at all.

I have been advised that Brooke's sentiment analysis for the short, medium and loner term on the SPX are at extremes-- very high 90s. Long here? I don't think so.

Also, Donald Sew has a Tsunami indicator which is based weekly sentiment work. It has been ringing intraday weekly class one sells on the market for quite sometime now since the March high. I would not want to fade that indicator at all either as it has a great track record.

So to be long, from a trader's perspective, given the above is akin IMO to playing a possible blow off top which is the bearish equivalent of playing for a crash.

I am also of the opinion that IRA money flows has had a hand and the recent AMG data shows a surge in mutual fund money flows and money managers hold no cash these days and I am sure they threw what they got at the market.

All IMHO.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News