SARS - what next? Message Board

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Pastimes : SARS - what next?

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To: Ilaine who started this subject	4/20/2003 2:42:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 1070

* Sar Wars * Cumulative deaths. I've been running a graph for a few weeks. x = 10 deaths. 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ..2 Apr xxxxx ..9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx 16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [159] 23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [220 - estimate] 19 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [actual 182] who.int <As of today, a cumulative total of 3547 cases with 182 deaths have been reported from 25 countries. Compared with yesterday, 12 new deaths, all in Hong Kong SAR, have been reported. > 182:3547 = 5.1% Nearing my old 7% estimate! 4% has been left behind. So is the wishful thinking 3%, or even 2% I've seen at times. By country: who.int Dead:Recovered = 182:1749 = 10%. Oh dear. Looks as though 7% will be about right for the overall death rate when the smoke has cleared. Mqurice PS: Going back two months now. Message 18629116 and a month since my RED ALERT Message 18748714

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