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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 274.90+2.9%3:14 PM EST
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (69884)4/20/2003 10:38:21 AM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 70976
 
My equity investments are in semi and semi-equips and my long term is the 10-20 years predicted for Moore's Law. I don't believe that moving jobs to the lowest cost areas (manufacturing and service) a priori puts a lid on the returns on Western companies. In fact, basic economics says that it should improve returns. There is dislocation in the local labor pool, and a seeming acceleration of the divergence between haves and have nots. You might start watching the demographics of leading research universities, but, currently, the flow is toward US institutions and there is a significant US retention of graduates.

I hear a lot of talk about the lack of a "killer app." The network is the killer app. Wired, 56KB is the equivalent of Model Ts on dirt roads. Wireless, bandwidth, and pervasive connectivity are ahead.

I wonder if the economists who predict dire futures really understand the effect of technology. Economists have concentrated on increased "productivity", but they have not been able to really grasp and describe the mechanism.

I see a lot of concern about so-called IT spending. I have begun to think that this is "generals fighting the last war." The beauty of the network and advanced electronics is that it has moved technology from primarily a business tool to primarily a consumer product and service generator. This is also very positive for those large populations of young people you cited. Their world view could change dramatically because their view of the world will increase dramatically.
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