I have just finished watching "Charlie Rose's" section on North Korea. The panel consisted of James Hoge, Council on Foreign Relations, Joesph Nye, Dean, JFK School of Government, Harvard University and Robert Einhorn, Center for Strategic and International Studies. These three just got back from a Trilateral commission meeting in Seoul, South Korea. Very pessimistic threesome. Here are some of their conclusions.
1) NK's goal is to go Nuclear and use this to extort SK.
2) If they have to choose, they would rather keep their nuclear program than have to give it up to get a deal with us.
3) SK does not believe they have a problem with NK. They think they can get along with them, and any nuke problem will be ours, not theirs. They are going into negotiations with force off the table. They see NK as a basket case they can deal with.
4) China wants no nukes in Korea. They don't want to see Japan go nuke. They realize that if NK can sell nukes, they could be used against them.
5) China does not want "Chaos" on the border. They will not go for SK troops at the Yalu. A regime change is out for them.
6) The reason for the change in attitude toward negotiations by NK had nothing to do with Iraq. It was due to a high level emissary from China and the Chinese cut off of oil for a few days.
7) What we need to do is to negotiate a deal with NK that results in them totally giving up any Nuke program in exchange for a guaranteed no regime change deal, and some aid. What do they see as the chances of this happening? Slim and none, and Slim just left town. |
