Blair reaps spoils of war with surge in support
[I think Blair is still in deep trouble over Iraq. My earlier assessment was too hasty. The WMD non issue will come back to bite. May as well use Iraq as a move to help ME peace if possible. USA has a good position to negotiate from now imho]
guardian.co.uk
Tony Blair's personal standing as prime minister has recovered strongly in the past month, providing confirmation that his role in the Iraq crisis has delivered him a significant war dividend as he faces next week's local elections, according to the results of the April Guardian/ICM opinion poll.
The poll shows that Mr Blair has emerged from the worst moment of his six-year premiership with his reputation among voters not only intact but restored to a comfortable net personal rating of plus seven points. Some 49% of voters now believe he is doing a good job as prime minister, compared with 42% who are unhappy with his performance.
This contrasts sharply with the February Guardian/ICM poll, when Mr Blair's personal rating plunged to minus 20 points in the immediate aftermath of the 1 million-strong march against the war, rebellion in the Labour party and lack of progress at the UN.
The survey shows that he is again riding high among Labour voters with a net approval rating of 66 points - 80% say he is doing a good job, with only 14% dissatisfied. But he has yet to regain the cross-party appeal that proved crucial in Labour's two general election victories, with only one in three Tory and Liberal Democrat voters backing him.
The poll also shows that Labour has received an electoral boost from the fall of Baghdad, with its share of the vote rising four points in the past month to 42%, taking it back to where it was in January. Its lead over the Tories has doubled in the past month from six points to 12.
This bounce is an echo of what hap pened to the Conservatives under Margaret Thatcher after the Falklands war, when victory restored their opinion poll lead in summer 1982, enabling them to coast to a general election win in 1983.
This time both the Tories and Liberal Democrats have suffered as a result of the war, despite their contrasting approaches. The Tories, who supported the war, are down two points to 30% in the past month. The Liberal Democrats, whose anti-war stance helped them to their highest poll rating for 10 years, are down from 24% to 21%.
The fortunes of the opposition parties are mirrored in the performance of their leaders. Iain Duncan Smith has emerged from the war with a net personal rating of minus 17, an improvement on February's minus 23. Only 30% of voters are happy with his performance as Tory leader, while 47% are unhappy. More Tory voters (43%) are unhappy with his leadership than the 42% who say they are satisfied.
Charles Kennedy continues to enjoy a positive image, but he has dropped from a net rating of plus 21 points in February to plus 14 points now. This is entirely due to a seven-point rise in those who do not like the job he is doing as Liberal Democrat leader.
This month's poll also suggests that the turnout at next week's local elections may be up slightly on last year's 35%, perhaps another "dividend" as a result of the intense political debate over the war.
ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 and over by telephone from April 17-19. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results were weighted to the profile of all adults. |
