SARS and Avian Flu Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu

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To: hui zhou who wrote (194)	4/22/2003 8:45:54 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 4232

SARS fatality rate is only 5%. I don't know how much for the common flu. A fatality rate of 5% is estimated to be higher than the Spanish 'Flu epidemic of 1918-1920 that killed more than 20 million people world wide. Regular 'flu has a fatality rate more like .1% (But I concede that 'flu is likely much more infectious than the average SARS infection, but perhaps not more so than the infection potential of a SARS "superspreader."). The SARS story is close to an end IMHO. Much closer to a beginning, in my view. It's probably only a matter of time before we get a single outbreak on a cruise ship, and there would go the cruise industry. How comfortable would you be going to a movie and sitting in the same room as several hundred other people any one of which could be infected and could potentially kill you or your family? There goes the movie business... My guess is that once the genie is out of the bottle (and I suspect it is in China), it is only a matter of time before it spreads to the rest of the world. Canada is a good test case - they still have a shot at containing it. Peter

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