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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (95521)	4/22/2003 10:05:04 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Mq, if anyone needs to read the Baer article on the fragility of the Saudi excess capacity, it is you. It is unfortunately not online. You may find it in the most recent edition of The Atlantic Magazine. I suspect you would find that it successfully challenges some your basic assumptions. The fact of the matter is that Saudi Arabia is in a political position similar to Iran's at the end of the Shah's reign. Like the House of Pahlavi, the House of Saud is a house of cards. According to Baer, 20 lbs. of Semtex is all it will take to inflict major damage to the flow of Saudi oil. Given the fact that there are high-ranking Saudis who apparently believe it is preferable to sacrifice SA's riches than deal with the infidels, I would suspect that those 20 lbs. will explode sooner or later. Perfect AQ operation, kill two birds with one stone--the House of Saud falls or is rocked and oil goes to $75 or more, inflicting major economic damage to the West. Best to get ready for this scenario. C2@Sharifwon'tlikeitrockthecasbah.com

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