Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use

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To: LLCF who wrote (382)	4/22/2003 10:33:35 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 4907

Hate to add to the prevailing doom and gloom over here, but the latest SARS news is not good. Former Bank of England economist Danny Gabay believes the infection could knock up to 1.6% off global GDP this year if it spreads further and at the same rate at which it has in Asia. Given that the IMF has pencilled in growth of just 3.2%, that would tip the global economy dangerously back towards recession. Full article on my SARS thread at Message 18868268 The discussion on that thread earlier today on the mortality rate is also worth reading. If you look at the ratio of dead:recovered for countries with reliable data (excluding mainland China) you get around 20%. It's still too early in this outbreak to know what's going to happen in say the US, but I'm growing slightly more pessimistic, not less. Peter

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