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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: zonder who wrote (236814)	4/22/2003 11:01:40 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) of 436258

>>According to Chaos Theory (as explained in "Jurassic Park", if you have not heard of it anywhere else) << I expect that was probably the "lite" version. <g> Chaos doesn't describe all systems or necessarily connect things you wouldn't normally expect to have some causal link, but for those systems that are characterized by chaotic behavior -- very small differences in the inputs can lead to very large differences after a relatively few number of cycles. There probably are portions of our financial system that are aptly described as chaotic. But knowing that small differences in "inputs" can lead to very large differences after a few cycles does you little good, unless you can characterize the regular cycles that exist within the whole -- or identify whole regions that are "not likely." The Shi'ites in Iraq might have a whole lot to do with the USD exchange rates in the future -- exchange rates may have characteristics that are chaotic, but typically "chaotic" descriptions that are useful are pretty simple and don't take a gadzillion inputs and try to make sense of them. That's the domain of the wonderful "science" of econometrics. <g>

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