Some intelligent comments by Elliot Chodoff on Arafat's latest shenanigans:
The problems begin with the fact that Arafat has already achieved what he set out ot do in the Abu Mazen crisis: he has demonstrated the power he continues to wield over every aspect of the Palestinian political process. Paradoxically, the intense pressure brought to bear on him over the past few days by the Arabs, Americans, and Europeans has strengthened his position, showing that if you don't talk to Arafat, you don't do business with the Palestinians. An old master of brinksmanship, Arafat continues to play the game with great skill, continuing to fight for his lifelong cause: himself. Arafat knows, as he did at Camp David, that the establishment of a Palestinian state and the institution of real peace between Israel and the Palestinians means the end of him as a national leader. Just as he knows that the appointment of a real prime minister with real authority means the end of his dictatorial reign over the Palestinians which has endured since the 1960's. He will do everything in his power to prevent both.
and by Yisrael Ne'eman on the same site:
Abu Mazen on the Verge of Failure
By Yisrael Ne'eman
If you want to make peace you do not deal with Yasir Arafat. Hence two months ago the Palestine Legislative Council nominated Abu Mazen for Palestinian prime minister in an effort to undercut President (or as Israel says – "Chairman") Arafat. The two are down to the wire on deciding who will be in the Palestinian cabinet and what policies will be taken to begin to advance the Bush 'Road Map'.
Arafat wants his old loyalists in the cabinet despite the PLC calls for reform, especially in battling corruption. As pointed out in today’s Ha'aretz, the two were at loggerheads over ministerial appointments, in particular that of Mohammed Dahlan. But such arguments are only a smokescreen, the real issue is the disarming of the many underground (or terrorist) groups, beginning with Arafat's own loyalist Fatah and Al Aksa Brigades. Afterwards the really hard nuts of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad must be tackled.
Arafat objects to disarming anyone while Abu Mazen knows the Bush 'Road Map' stands no chance if the Palestinian Authority will not be the sole officially armed organization in the 'state-to-be'. In modern democratic society, the only official body allowed to use organized armed force is the state, hence law, order and defense are ensured. Arafat is said to fear such a move will cause a civil war, which may be the case, but the larger question of Middle East peace looms.
The PA must disarm all the militias is there is to be a two state solution to the Palestinian – Israeli conflict. Arafat does not want a two state solution, still hoping for Israel's demise. Disarming the militias means taking sides with Israel, the US and even the Europeans. Abu Mazen is regularly accused by the average Palestinian interviewee of being an American/Zionist lackey and Arafat knows he can liquidate such 'moderate' opposition over such policy issues as disarming militias (terror groups).
According to a PLC deadline, Abu Mazen has another day to form his cabinet, even if questions are left open. At the moment he is being forced into a pro-Arafat, anti-peace government. Such paralysis will return him to the #2 spot, but as a beaten, weakened, submissive Arafat adherent, not exactly what the US and European Union had in mind. More importantly the West and Israel expect him to begin disarming terrorists and apparently he does see that as his mandate.
Despite the American victory over Saddam Hussein, Arafat and the Palestinian street (or at least those interviewed) appear quite unimpressed and are willing to buck whatever peace proposals are put on the table. Arafat is proving he is 'relevant' but only when it comes to making war, when it comes to peace he is no where to be found. Abu Mazen may want conflict resolution, but he is losing ground steadily and may not even present a government nor become prime minister.
As for Israel one can expect increasing pressures to complete the security fence.
chodoff.blogspot.com |
