That is not how I read Roach's article:
The only way out of this trap, in my view, is for a long overdue global rebalancing — less growth in the United States and more growth elsewhere around the world. Unfortunately, there are no signs that such a rebalancing is in the cards.
...
Our European and Japanese teams still see little, if any, positive growth in 2Q03. The recent data flow on the Euro-zone production front wasn’t quite as bad as we had thought, but the trend remains consistent with only fractional GDP growth, at best. Moreover, while the just-released annual revisions to the Japanese industrial production data were on the upside, as expected, the underlying trend still looks quite stagnant. Meanwhile, SARS-related downside risks seem to be cropping up everywhere in Asia ex Japan. Hong Kong’s economy has come to a virtual standstill. Singapore’s government recently noted that tourist arrivals are down some 61% (YoY) in the first 13 days of April. And Taiwan, Korea, and Malaysia are all bracing for SARS-related impacts. China remains the outlier in the region, especially on the heels of its stunning 9.9% increase in 1Q03 real GDP growth. However, in a weakening regional and global climate, even the sustainability of China’s growth dynamic can now be drawn into question. Total trade — exports and imports, combined — hit a record 61% of GDP in the first period of this year; that’s up from 50% in 2002 and essentially double the 32% reading of a decade ago. |
