<The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% >
Hi Biomaven. That was in days when the proportion of old people was low and life expectancy was nearer 40 than 80. Also, the old people weren't tottering with coronary, lung, diabetes and other medical conditions - people died in those days before they lingered into old age.
So, the same virus today would have a mortality probably around 7%, which is where Sars is.
Also, the 1981 rate of death in 1918 doesn't seem credible - occurring in a few hours. Probably the victims were sick, entered a rapid growth phase of the virus in their bodies, [the exponential growth in their bodies means a peak seems to suddenly be reached, whereas they could have been infected for a day or two as the bug replicated, and feeling okay until wham, down they go with the final doubling of viral load].
Mqurice |
