are you talking about "the top" or the local top we had early december? i went into secular bear mode in june of 2000 and have remained so.
i'm getting a little bit dubious of how much farther the market will go until it begins to roll over again, (we are 5 weeks now with the comp trading over the 200dma, yet another "first in over a year")...but it feels like the market is holding recent gains well enough to entice new money ...the last two times the spx tried to break above the 200 dma, the break failed, miserably the first time, quite modestly the second time, which also coincided with options expiration, the last options expiry ended with the spx on the plus side of the 200 dma....and now the 200 dma looks like support on the comp...around 1340ish..all quite bullish
to answer your question...fundamentally, i am still bearish ..capacity issues, unemployment, taxes, so i don't need to turn... but if oil prices continue on the downward slope, that has to be seen as bullish for the economy....having a real tough time seeing what will push those prices higher.
but s*%# happens. |
