What we need to do is to negotiate a deal with NK that results in them totally giving up any Nuke program in exchange for a guaranteed no regime change deal, and some aid. What do they see as the chances of this happening? Slim and none, and Slim just left town.
If NK actually has several nukes, there may be a possible solution there, albeit far from a perfect one.
We cannot openly accept the idea of a nuclear NK. On the other hand, we know that if they have a few bombs, they will never give them up.
They might be convinced to give up their ability to produce more nukes, though, if we give them the nonaggression pact and, more important, agree to pretend that they don't have a nuclear deterrent, though we know they probably do.
This would give them confidence that they will not be attacked, and give us some smaller degree of confidence that they would not be exporting nuclear technology.
The carrot would be a joint US/China aid program. The only available stick would be a joint US/China aid cutoff, or even blockade, if they were caught exporting.
The important development in these negotiations is that with China on board (to the still-to-be-determined extent to which they are) economic sanctions become a meaningful stick. The only one we have, really; military options are pretty thin.
All this is speculation, of course, and I wouldn't even pose it categorically as "what I think". I do think, though, that we have to avoid the trap of thinking we will find a final solution to this problem this time around. If we can buy some time, and seriously sit down with the Chinese and others to see what can be done to encourage internal change during that time, that will be good enough for me. I just don't see a complete "solution" in the cards, and I suspect that any attempt to force one would pose unacceptable risks. |
