I am sure you are right about there being attacks in Iraq and I assume they have already begun. But I question whether OBL is spending any time on them. Such efforts would not require his claimed "strengths" and declared purpose of high profile targeting.
I think you underestimate both the importance and the vulnerability of our position in Iraq.
I think most of the Islamists know that the only way they can defeat America is in a war of attrition. These people are very familiar with this technique; they have used it before. They cannot fight a war of attrition against us inside the US: they don’t have enough people that can operate in the US, and it is simply too difficult to stage the number of attacks that a war of attrition requires. The only way they can use attrition against us is to bring us into an environment that favors them.
Many here, and many outside commentators, are making the mistake of assuming that the war in Iraq is over. It’s not. The military phase is over, and Saddam is defeated, but we still have enemies there. There is a substantial Islamist presence in Iraq; unlike Saddam, they have allies in the region who will help them, and unlike Saddam, they have an established mode of operations that has proven to be effective against occupying powers.
If Islamist terrorists can force us out of Iraq before our work there is done, we will, in effect, lose the war; and if an Islamist government takes over Iraq or any part of Iraq, that loss will constitute a serious defeat in the war on terror as well.
The terrorists know they cannot destroy America. Their immediate goal is to drive us out of their territory. To do this, they needed to draw us into a vulnerable position where they can attack us freely. I think too few people have considered the possibility that this is what 9/11 was all about.
it is pretty clear that the current administration would much rather fight such terrorists anywhere but in the US.
Certainly we want to keep them out of the US, but it will be much, much, harder to fight them in Iraq. Imagine trying to control terrorism without a reliable police force, security service, or immigration service? What investigative capacity do we have on the ground there?
I don't think OBL has the time to worry about individual martyrs with car bombs or plastic explosives strapped to their chests, unless they are in a place like Chicago, Manhattan, or SF.
Even in the US, I think we concentrate too much on the major metropolitan areas. I have a gut suspicion that just as the last round of attacks was aimed at symbols of capitalism and imperialism, the next may be aimed at mom and apple pie. A series of car bombs or suicide bombs in middle American cities and towns, with special attention to Texas, would have an impact equal to that of 9/11, and be far more achievable.
I hope our people are prepared.
...Unless, of course we do something completely insane first.
Always a lively possibility |
