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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (63552)	4/23/2003 10:15:41 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Any currency should be shorted when the trade deficit is > 3% of GDP. Now, US has 5% of GDP trade deficit + something really nasty, because US economy is an 80% service economy. Only 20% of the GDP is manufacturing goods that can offset the trade imbalance. That makes the trade deficit whole 25% of the "goods" portion of GDP. It would take 5 years at current export levels to reduce "total" trade deficit from bubble years to zero. Now, it really can't go below that, can it? 130 Trillion notional value derivatives are all in debt AND (20% of that) currency markets. Stock market accounts "only" for 2 Trillion in derivatives. Now, these debt derivatives actually GREW at a record pace as the stock market collapsed, because the debt and dollar bubble have yet to deflate. Yep. THAT won't be very pretty. Will sound like Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, and Indonesia combined. There will be a lot of fighting from the big boys before it happens, cause when it happens, the big boys go broke. They happen to account for over 60 Trillion in debt and curency derivatives. 7 biggest US banks.

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