To All:
To All:.
I have been very quiet on this thread for quite some time. As you know, I am short, dabble with stocks as a hobby, never dabble with a set of core holdings which is my retirement fund and being retired, best not to monkey with that!!!
I have been short and planned to stay short until DDIM hit a target price of about $10 Now, I now am not so sure. While I treat these "gambles" as my hobby, and it represents a small part of my portfolio, I HATE TO LOSE. Worse, if a short keeps going up, there is no end to what you can lose. So far it hasn't gone up that far for me.
I listened to the conference call and quite frankly I, as a short, came away with the feeling that at present I may be chasing a train that is leaving or has already left the station.
In today's atmosphere and with the increasing visibility to the investing public being given to Y2K, all the "bad" things about DDIM such as Valuation way to high, Short interest too high, Ardes 2K is a joke, Management in turmoil, cooking the books, etc. may not make any difference.
IMO, I believe I am a little more sophisticated regarding technology stocks than the average investor. That can be a problem for me since when you begin to feel smarter than the market, you are going to get hit bad. I have spent a lifetime in the computer field, most in marketing so I generally can recognize hype when I see it, understand enough about business management to make an informed conclusion, etc. I thus feel this stock is over valued.
It appears however that the bulk of the investors/shareholders are, IMO, so taken up with the market in general and if a company is growing and is involved in Y2K it has got to be a winner. The result is invest, hold, tell your friend to invest, hold and wait for next Q's results.
With DDIM, it always seems like the next Q will really tell the story. Well here we are again, looking for the next Q as if will really tell the story. Major contracts, lots of Unysis sales of A2K, $40M of new consulting, more book cooking, more jokes about A2K, well you get it.
I previously have stated that I plan to hold onto my shorts. I have stated that I expect this to be like a football game of four quarters and that we have started the second half. Now I am not so sure. This may well be an 8Q football game and if history is any guide, maybe a 12 Q football game as we must be in the fifth or sixth Q already.
Nothing is more stupid than to be married to a given position. Have conditions changed? I am not sure yet but I am sure trying to decide.
I am not much behind with my average shorting price being 21. If I do cover, thank the lord it is not because of being squeezed. It will be that my hobby "with DDIM" is no longer FUN. I am just too much of a fundamental investor to go long on DDIM and that may well be my problem.
My expectations for DDIM's stock price will have an upward bias during the rest of the summer, ( I doubt that it will go above 30 and yes the next Q's results will tell another part of the story. Can they grow fast enough to meet analysts projections? I believe they will at least for the next Q. One thing I will bet on, after the next Q's results, there will be a lot of posts stating that Q4 will be the key quarter and on it will go for a few more Q's!
Bottom lines:
1. Lets be more civil and listen to each other.
2. Lets share more information in an informative way, that is the fun of these threads, not ripping people "on the other side."
Sorry for the rambling. Would enjoy anyone's comments.
Still short, Still underwater
Have a great weekend.
Bob Trocchi |
