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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: JRI who wrote (71950)	4/23/2003 7:51:04 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (3) of 209892

It has been brought to my attention that the last leg of the fall rally was wave C and I didn't buy that idea, but I am starting to buy it Gee I wonder who did that?-vbg I do chat with him from time to time as he is just about the best I have ever read. We both use a very similar TICK indicator to indicate major tops (he uses a 21-hour MA). Anyway, I pointed out that the October rally was a complete 3 wave move and that it looked like a 5 wave move off that Dec 2 top which made it distinctly possible that we had a complete correction and were pointed down now. He thought it was a good alternate and I gave it a 50-50 shot. Now I have upped that a bit to 60-40 and sounds like he has upped the probability as well. This is based mainly on the TICK and the nature of this "rally" which is anything but 'C' like on the DOW. If all the DOW is in here off March 10 is a '2' wave, then it may very well fizzle out at around 8610 where c=.618 x a.

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