Hi Jay,
IYO, relative to Germany and France, is the UK a bubble as noticeable as a putrid whale in a cat's sandbox?
Well, I don't know if I'd express a bubble in quite the vivid terms that you imagined, but yes, for what it's worth, I think the British economy is not much better off than any of the other western economies. The main difference for Great Britain is that they have a tremendous trade relationship with the USA and Canada, and they're doing fairly well elsewhere around the globe.
But because they have done well, they have further to fall yet than say France or Germany, who have already fallen considerably and may not yet even be close to the bottom of their respective economic abysses.
The two biggest problems for the British, as I see it, are an enormous bubble in the price of private housing and the rapid aging of their population, which is not much of a difference from other western economies.
The problems (for all western nations) will be peeled back, one by one, much like the layers of a rotting onion. There is simply too much demand (for government services or inexpensive whatever) and nowhere near enough money to pay for everything.
Something has to give. We can expect either soaring inflation or dismal deflation. Most people should expect that they will likely have to tone down their standard of living, and future expectations, by more than just a notch or two.
Personally, I like the way Great Britain has handled its problems relative to other nations. But a global recession/depression (which I think is now inevitable) isn't likely to bypass them...
KJC |
