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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 267.87-0.6%Dec 5 3:59 PM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (69980)4/24/2003 11:27:25 AM
From: runes   of 70976
 
Personally I don't see the current developments as a negative.

First - what is happening now is a rush to fill a power vacuum created by the rapid collapse of Saddam's regime. It happened so fast that the US was not prepared to step in so it is allowing the indigenous authorities to assert themselves.
...IMO - far better than our own homebrewed authority that would lack credibility and be a focus for all discontent. Both inside and outside Iraq. (No, I don't believe the administration's claims that this is part of their plan).

Second - at the moment the more aggressive (authoritarian) elements are making a push for a power grab. But as long as the US can maintain enough control to allow country wide democratic elections, this power grab will fail. This is because the Kurds and the Sunnis willl side with the more moderate Shia movements. That 40% combined with even a minority moderate Shia movement will control the field.
...And I suspect that the moderate Shias are probably the majority. After decades of brutal authoritarian control I suspect that most will shy away from hardline movements.

The one great danger to this process would be a militia led coup. Which makes it of paramount importance that the US 1) Clear out the massive arm caches that are spread out all over the place. and 2) Reconstitute a national army under moderate control.
...OK - #2 is a tough one. Nobody said that this will be a cakewalk. Well, almost nobody.
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