USA truck market at 10-year low
Sales of medium-heavy trucks fell by 4.7% in March to 25,714 from 26,980, which worsened the year to date deficit to 3.9% at 68,148 from 70,949. That means that the market is continuing to run at a ten year low. If the market continues to run at the present rate, the full year would not finish much above 310,000, and that compares with an average annual demand of 385,000 over the past decade.
The heavy truck sector is running against the pattern of the car and light truck sectors in that there is no tangible evidence that the market is about to change. There are still more losers than winners and what growth there is has been in the lighter segments of the sector. We may see surges in some areas of the automotive sector over the next few months, as much out of relief as anything, but until the Class 8 sector starts to show a dramatic turnaround there must always remain a degree of caution.
The surprise performance has come from International, no longer known as Navistar and suddenly back on top of the table after an absence of five years. International have boosted sales by 1,024 units in a sector down by 2,801 units overall, and their 16,566 sales to date have given them 24.3% market share whilst previous highfliers Freightliner have seen sales drop by 4.1% to 15,822 from 15,492.
Despite the lack of evidence, we believe the medium-heavy truck sector will show a sharp turnaround over the second half of the year and we expect full year sales of around 325,000, rising to at least 350,000 in 2004, if not considerably more.
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