Nice stuff. Let's see:
the Nov. 25, 2002 hit was 4-days and 40-points prior to the intra-day top (1481 Nov. 25, 1521 intra-day high Dec. 2).
The Jan. 4, 2002 hit was 3-days and 65-points prior to the intra-day top (2033 Jan. 4; 2098 intra-day high Jan. 7).
The Dec. 6, 2001 hit was the day the top was (2065), and
the close was 2054. The market dropped 2.5% intra-day the next day, but recovered to be down only 1.7%.
The May 22, 2001 hit was the day the top was (2328), and the close was 2313. The market dropped quite a bit the following day.
The top was an average of 33-points from the closing hit.
Interesting that on Nov. 25, 2002 we were in the same vicinity as we are now, and dropped to 1442 COMP from 1481 after the hit on the indicator. Today we dropped to 1448 COMP.
The May 2001 top was easy to spot because of the closing evening star doji candle. The Jan. 2002 top was near the .786 re-trace of the previous big drop and a double top with the August 2001 top.
The Dec. 2001 top was tough to spot, but it was a test of the August 2001 top, so it was within 35-points of a double top.
The November 25 hit was early because the target may have been the 200SMA on the daily COMP, which was at around 1500 or so at the time and the upper BB which was around 1515.
Basically from what I can gather, the hits are early only when a double top or other clear target is waiting overhead.
The one difficulty we have right now in finding if the intra-day high is in is the NDX and COMP Jan highs were 1104 and 1467 respectively. The NDX surpassed its high by 11 points, but the COMP only surpassed its high by 1-point.
Is that sufficient, or is the real target the test of the 1521 high and NDX 1155 high?
We have one other thing in play here, and that is the falling resistance line from the March 2000 top on the COMP daily. That line is around 1520 COMP right now. It wouldn't be right to be as close as we are and not test it.
That leads me to believe this signal may be early again because of the looming DT line and Dec. double top targets. The last two hits the indicator was an average of 3.5 days and 53 points prior to the intra-day high. There are multiple fib hits next week Tuesday and Wednesday for trend change times. We're about 35-points from when the indicator hit to a good test of overhead resistance. We have the GDP tomorrow, and we're still in the upchannel off the last pivot low.
We did a near .382 re-trace off the last pivot low on the NDX today, and we held the pivot low at 1096. As long as the up-channel holds, we should be looking at a higher high.
On top of this, the Dow has a triple top, and I can't see that lasting. We need to destroy it tomorrow AM just so I don't get bugged by it.
If we get to NDX 1126-1130 tomorrow, I may just go partial short and not wait for the 1150 level, as what's 20 points in the big scheme of things here?
Anyway, there's my case study of the indicator hits provided by h8. Thanks again for the insight! |
