...Slowdown
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
April 25, 2003
I've been saying this lately, but I'll repeat it. I have the instinct, intuition, feeling, that the bear's grip is beginning to tighten around the throats of US consumers.
Over the last few weeks I've suddenly been flooded with what I call "Get Rich Mailers." It's an epidemic. "Get Rich With Options." "I Turned $10,000 into $1 million is 60 Days!" "Learn the Professional Way to a Fortune." I don't know whether these are promotions out of desperation or whether something is happening that I'm just unaware of. At any rate, it's "You too can be a millionaire" time, and the promotions keep coming in.
All right, let's get into the real world. Initial jobless claim on the latest reading climbed 8,000 to a total of 455,000, highest level in a year.
At the same time, the Conference Board reported that "Help Wanted" advertising index dropped again in March, down 2 points to 38. A year ago it stood at 45.
I've said all along that the one phenomenon that will frighten consumers is unemployment -- which translates into your neighbor losing his job -- or worse, you losing your own job.
La Jolla is a fairly wealthy community and it's not really representative of the most of the US. But everyone I talk to here tells me that business has slowed down.
Wife Faye is going to New York City on business this weekend, and she called a few "good" restaurants for reservations. The snottiness is gone, the "call us three weeks ahead" is history. Now you can get into any restaurant in the City on short notice. And they actually thank you for calling. We were surprised at how easy it was to make a reservation in the best restaurants only a day ahead.
Sure, all the above anecdotal evidence, but add that to the e-mails I'm receiving from subscribers all over the world, and I'm convinced that my intuition is correct -- we're moving into a definite business and consumer slowdown.
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