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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: skinowski who wrote (72210)	4/26/2003 2:13:30 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (2) of 209892

Tough to say right now. I still kind of like the complete zigzag down on gold from the highs. at_the_ask.tripod.com I would expect gold to correct the recent rally to above 320 somewhere and then go higher. It most likely will not fall below the black resistance line that is somewhere above $300. three-of-three.com It doesn't say it in the text but the green thing is what I believe to be a wave c ED, which is why I don't believe in the continued gold bear. It seems pretty clear that it sold off impulsively so either it's a zigzag or it must still be in the 20 year bear ala Prechter, which I don't really subscribe to. It's always possible but that opens up the whole deflation debate which the fed has vowed to fix by wholesale printing. They may just create some nice stagflation but the $ will suffer anyway. $$$$$$$$$$ On a purely technical level I would have to see it(the $) regain it's 200dma around 103 and it's dt line from apr 02 to dec 03, which is right around 101. I could see a small C rally to match the A in your chart but I'm not too convinced that it will make much progress over the res that I mentioned. Maybe gold and the buck rally at the same time, a bond blowoff might draw capital in and cause it go up perhaps. I'm not sure if I believe in the wedge from the high thing that I was pimping a while back. If it is real, rather than a four wedge it could be wave a of a ZZ and it might not correct more than .2 of the drop in that case. The internals look fairly impulsive so maybe thats more likely. I think it's wise to believe that hard assets are in a bull market and paper assets are in decline which will probably last a long time. It will take a lot of convincing on that to change my mind.

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