North Korea: Back to Square One?
Apr 25, 2003
stratfor.biz
Summary
The North Korean nuclear talks have ended, as expected, without a solution. Pyongyang is still looking to force Washington into signing a peace accord, and the Bush administration is calling North Korea's bluff.
Analysis
The North Korean nuclear talks ended abruptly April 24, with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell saying that North Korea should not labor under the impression that Washington or its allies can be "intimidated by bellicose statements or threats." Pyongyang issued a statement saying, "The situation is so tense that a war may break out at any moment due to U.S. moves."
Washington and Pyongyang entered the trilateral meetings in Beijing from completely different standpoints: North Korea wanting the United States to sign a non-aggression pact or accept that North Korea has become a nuclear state, while for Washington, the talks were about nuclear disarmament and about global security. The agreement to meet at all, however, turned out to be the only one that was reached.
Washington, riding high from the victory in Iraq, has categorically refused to be "blackmailed" by North Korea -- and by walking out of the talks, sent subtle warnings that it is prepared to use military force against North Korea if necessary. However, at this moment the United States does not have the military assets in the region to conduct a military operation against North Korea, unless the carrier groups now en route from the Persian Gulf back to California have been diverted north to the Korean coast or the Sea of Japan.
Now that the talks have ended, both sides are waiting for the other to cave.
Sources close to the talks in Beijing have told CNN that North Korean officials have admitted the state indeed does possess nuclear weapons -- a report the North Koreans subsequently denied. However, by sending warnings about its nuclear status, Pyongyang believes that it can force the signing of a non-aggression pact with Washington. The United States views the warnings as a bad bluff and is looking to China to force North Korea back to the discussion table.
If Pyongyang should take the view that any agreement with the United States would be merely a prelude for U.S. attempts at regime change or moves to knock out nuclear facilities and forward-deployed artillery positions -- despite the dearth of military assets in the region -- the question then becomes whether North Korea will try to prove that it has nuclear capabilies. This is something that could be accomplished only through an underground nuclear test.
In the end, Pyongyang is playng a dangerous hand. And Washington is left to make a strategic decision that will have long-lasting effects: Sign a pact with Pyongyang, accept North Korea as a nuclear state or make plans to remove Kim Jong Il from power and destroy the state's WMD capabilities.
North Korea has set the clock ticking. |
