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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: elmatador who wrote (32510)	4/27/2003 12:43:21 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Distribution of heat on earth is due to the inclination of Earth's axis. It is the woblying of the axis that triggers glaciations. Yes that is the driver/initiator behind the cycles in the ice age. Carbon dioxide levels also rise and fall over the cycle but it isn't yet known why - they seem to act as an amplifier of the orbital motions. The question I was referring to is why there was a glaciation in the last 2 million years. and not before for 200million years since the beginning of the Triassic. There are some minor changes in the interim periods -phenomena like El Nino- but they don't alter the course. Big volcanoes eruptions and such. Sure that's correct those things are just fluctuations. CO2, well this thing exists for 4.5 billion years and people are trying to persudade us that a couple of hundred years of higher than the average CO2 emissions will chjnage weather's pattern? I don't buy that. The level of CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere determines the overall surface temperature. Without an atmosphere the mean temperature would be colder. With a thicker atmosphere hotter. Some gases create much more "radiative forcing" than others. CO2 levels in the Cretaceous say seem to have been way above today's levels. The temperature was much higher, there were no ice caps and seas covered all the lowland areas of the continents. Carbon levels may have been even higher earlier but the sun seems to have been less bright. Since then more and more carbon has been locked up in geological deposits (far more in limestone than in fossil fuels BTW). The problem at the moment is we are putting carbon into the atmosphere at a rate faster than it is locking up again (it doesn't just pile up in the atmosphere as the Greenpeace types would make you think). The rate of absorption is also increasing. Where those increased sinks are isn't fully determined... however we are getting a better understanding of the climate system over about a century time range. When I said "little was understood" that applied to the longer time ranges. Still there is only a moderate understanding yet in this time range. There is good understanding at the level of daily weather. Keep driving your SUV gas guzzler and relax. All this crap about global warming is only to keep feed researchers who reach conlcuions, for if they would, the money would stop flowing. I haven't yet received one dollar of funding in the 9 years since I first looked at this issue apart from my salary. Mostly my bosses haven't thought that global warming is what I should be looking at anyway but they don't argue with success. David

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