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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (32527)4/27/2003 12:17:32 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
The Milankovich cycle drives the fluctuations - glacial and interglacial periods during the ice age which may or may not be complete. But it doesn't explain why ice ages get started in the first place or why they end. This ice age has ben going 1-2 million years. The last one which was much more severe was at the boundary between the Permian and Triassic 225 million years ago.

The leading ideas are combinations of more and more carbon getting locked up and the position of the continents and hence ocean fluctuations. The relative depths of the oceans may also be a driver. They are getting deeper as time elapses from the breakup of Pangea (which formed around the Permian-Triassic boundary).

What we do know is that temperature was warmer around 4000BC and there does not seem to have been any catastrophic shift in ocean currents at that time. So we have a lower bound on the safety range for global warming.

Break down in the North Atlantic drift will mainly affect Scandinavia and Russia. Temperatures in UK and France are only a little roughly 1C above those in the same latitude in North America - British Columbia, Washington, Oregon.

The Little Ice Age was driven by solar activity. The sun fell to a brightness minimum during that period. It has been getting brighter since then. This caused the warming in the 19th and early 20th centuries. The human greenhouse effect starts to kick in mid-20th century only. That is why it has been so controversial as the data for a while was very limited.
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