Kim,
Although, I have to preface this comment by stating that I'm not a technician, the $6.00 figure has been significant in the past. If you look at the chart, Microvision bumped up against the $6.00 figure a few times in late January and on through February of this year. After a short-term dip, it blew through the $6.00 mark in mid-March (a huge technical buy signal!!).
Since that time it's bounced below and above the $6.00 figure with impunity, leaving me to wonder whether the number has any continuing significance. I'd like to back up Dave Rodella on his comments concerning 144 stock. I definitely agree that the owners of these shares have been holding the stock back in recent weeks. What exactly accounts for the movement over the past few days escapes me, but it may be that the 144 leak is over.
I wouldn't bet the farm on it, however. As I mentioned before, I'm not a technician. I'm an investor. I'm fortunate enough to have purchased shares as low as 3 1/2. I've also purchased shares at 7 3/8 (I got a little exhuberant that day). I don't worry too much about it, because my target price is substantially higher. Truth be known, I don't have a target price. I just know it's high.
This stock has interesting long run potential. First will come the price insensitive buyers, the military and medicine. A techonologically sound product delivered in quantity will spark a nice run up. That's the first wave. The second wave may occur when the technology is proven and these buyers purchase in quantity as production costs diminish. Then, let's say we get to equilibrium there.
While this second wave is going on, a third wave potentially hits. That will be when the first consumer applications hit the market. These will likely be high cost, and then we will have to judge consumer acceptance. The fourth wave occurs when the economics of producing for the consumer market allow mass merchandising.
Perhaps, I'm looking a little too far out, but I doubt it. One of the attractive things about this company is the vision (no pun intended) of the management. They're actively planning for wave 4 now. Listen to them talk about production economies and the mass consumer market. This is not a company that's going to be taken totally by surprise by changes in economies. They are preparing.
Now, will things work all according to plan? Of course not. Some applications will work. Others won't, and there will be applications discovered of which we can not conceive currenlty. But at least there is a plan. I would feel very differently about this company if they were living and dying for the next military contract. That would indicate short-sighted management.
Why do I care? Well, I fully expect this stock to get to double digits within a year. Unless, one has thought through their long run strategy, they won't know whether to take profits or not. You know how I feel currenlty, but I won't hesitate to change my position should something fundamental change (a change in the technological outlook, competitors, etc.)
I too get excited about these run ups. I treated myself to a nice dinner on Thursday, but I'm not cashing in my shares any time soon.
Sorry if I've run on. I haven't participated in this forum for awhile. I've been lurking and haven't had anything particularly valuable to contribute. I hope you find some value in my commentary today.
Stephan |
